Captain Marvel is three weeks away, and the serious tracking for the film’s opening weekend box office projections has begun.
Some have also suggested +/- $20 million adjustments to these lofty projections.
Disney and Marvel’s first female-led superhero adventure is tracking for an opening weekend of $100 million, according to early estimates. With three weeks to go until “Captain Marvel” hits theaters on March 8, some box office watchers suggest enthusiastic word of mouth could propel that figure to north of $120 million.Variety, Rebecca Rubin
But the way these projections are calculated is taking into account the movie’s awareness, interest, and first choice score.
Factors that played into Captain Marvel‘s projections include:
- The 109 million people saw the trailer in the first 24 hours
- The clip received an incredible first choice score of 33.
Another factor that may have led to this promising early tracking number is the fact that Captain Marvel is expected to lead right into Avengers: Endgame.
If these projections are true and Captain Marvel reaches $100 million, it would be only the fourth MCU origin story to reach the century mark.
It is equally worth noting that March has seen films do remarkably well on their opening weekend.
These movies include Disney’s live-action remake of Beauty and the Beast ($174.7 million) and Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166 million).
However, these two movies had a history with moviegoers, so those films had a leg up. And…
Again, a $100M start for this movie which stars Oscar winner Brie Larson as ace fighter pilot Carol Danvers is feasible, but projections were so far off for Universal/BVI/Blumhouse’s Glass, it was ridiculous.Deadline, Anthony D’Alessandro
Looking ahead, Disney and Marvel hope that having their first female superhero stand-alone movie opening on International Women’s Day will propel the movie even higher, further, faster…
Captain Marvel is also being compared to Wonder Woman which opened at $103 and see if there are any comparisons on how well it will do.
But tell us: Will Captain Marvel get your entertainment dollars when it opens up in March? Let us know in the comments…